THE LOOKOUT

February 2026

Kia ora there,

Welcome to the first Lookout of 2026.

This year presents a clear opportunity: to strengthen how New Zealand positions itself in a more contested and interconnected world. Economic strength, national security, trade, technology and democratic stability no longer sit in separate lanes. They intersect: and how well we align them will shape our prosperity, resilience and influence in the decades ahead. 

Across the world, countries are reinforcing their economic and strategic foundations. For New Zealand, that requires a practical, whole-of-society approach, aligning business, government and communities around the shared task of safeguarding both security and growth. 

That focus sits at the centre of our work in 2026. 

This year, Aspen NZ is concentrating on three connected priorities: security, leadership and decision-making. Economic and national security are inseparable. Navigating that reality depends on coordinated leadership and sound judgment, particularly where trade-offs are complex and consequences long-term.

This edition examines what alignment looks like in practice - across security, trade, corporate strategy and leadership capability:

• Global Affairs: Economic and National Security - A Whole of Society Approach
• Critical Conversations: The Great Trade Realignment - Asia Rising 
  
• Plus: Navigating the Future of Sustainability Strategy
• Upcoming Events: Debugging Decision Making

Next week we host Debugging Decision Making in Queenstown, a one-day roundtable focused on improving judgment in high-stakes environments. A limited number of places remain.

Our horizon remains constant: New Zealand’s Place in the World 2050. The aim is not simply to respond to change, but to get ahead of it, strengthening the capability and confidence required for the decades ahead.

A purposeful start to the year. 

Ngā mihi - Christine and the Aspen Institute NZ team  

Global Affairs

Collective Response Required: Economic and National Security

Economic resilience and national security are now tightly connected, and central to how New Zealand positions itself internationally. 

Aspen NZ’s Auckland Security Dialogue brought senior leaders together for a private, candid roundtable on what this shift means in practical terms for governance, corporate strategy and international alignment. Former Ambassador Rosemary Banks and NZSIS Director-General Andrew Hampton outlined a more complex threat environment, alongside a clear message: protecting national interests is no longer the responsibility of government alone. It requires informed leadership and shared accountability across sectors. 

This Dialogue sets the tone for our 2026 focus on New Zealand’s Place in the World 2050 - aligning prosperity and security, managing difficult trade-offs, and strengthening decision-making when the stakes are high. 

Read the full article to explore the themes shaping the year ahead. 

Critical Conversations 

Asia Rising: The New World Order and Global Trade 

Global trade is being reshaped. In The Great Trade Realignment - Asia Rising, McKinsey & Co outlines how growth, technology and new corridors are increasingly centred in Asia, even as geopolitical fault lines deepen. Established patterns are shifting, and new alignments - including stronger ties between India and the EU - are redefining economic partnerships. 

For small, open economies like New Zealand, the implications are significant. Trade strategy, supply chains and geopolitical positioning are more closely linked than before. Opportunity and risk now move together. 

Navigating this landscape requires strategic clarity, about where New Zealand aligns, how businesses manage exposure, and how policy supports long-term resilience. 

Navigating the Future of Sustainability

Corporate expectations are tightening as economic pressure, geopolitical risk and regulatory scrutiny converge. Sustainability can no longer sit alongside strategy; it must be embedded within it. 

The Aspen Institute’s Business & Society Programme argues that environmental and social initiatives must demonstrate measurable commercial value - strengthening competitive advantage, protecting margins and reinforcing resilience. 

Organisations that connect sustainability to financial performance and strategic positioning will be better placed to attract investment and sustain momentum. 

Coming Up - Local

Critical Conversations

Debugging Decision Making

February 24   |   Queenstown

A Roundtable for Improving Outcomes

Debugging Decision Making is a fast paced, one day roundtable that helps participants uncover hidden assumptions, test values, and avoid the traps that distort well intentioned choices. Participants in this inclusive roundtable use real-world case studies, and a practical 9-step decision framework to build stronger, more resilient decision habits. The result: turning good intentions into better outcomes. 

Coming Up - Global

Geopolitics, Leadership & Values

Aspen Spain

Madrid

20 February

Cyber Civic Engagement

Aspen US

Free Online Event

26 February

The Leadership Paradox: Regulation, Risk & Innovation in Uncertain Times

Aspen UK

Cambridge

5-7 March

Our work depends on thoughtful leadership across sectors.

If you are interested in contributing to or participating in this year’s programme, please get in touch.