Welcome to the March edition of 'The Lookout', leading with the geopolitical shifts reshaping trade, security and economic resilience ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  
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THE LOOKOUT

March 2026

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Kia ora there,

 

Welcome to the March edition of The Lookout.

 

The world looks rather different than it did a few weeks ago. The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has brought trade, alliances and economic resilience into sharp focus - a reminder that geopolitical fault lines can shift quickly and, at times, rupture with global consequences.


For New Zealand, the implications are immediate and the questions are pointed. How exposed are our supply chains? How aligned are business and government in their thinking? And what kind of leadership does this moment require? These are not hypothetical questions. They sit at the heart of our work this year.


This month we introduce the new architecture of our Global Affairs Programme - New Zealand's Place in the World: Trade, Security and Resilience to 2050. Through sector roundtables, regional dialogues and the Aspen NZ Security Forum, the programme brings together leaders from business, government and our international partners to examine these challenges with the seriousness they deserve.


This edition examines how these dynamics are playing out in practice:

  • Global Affairs: Geopolitics is back. Economics is paying attention.
  • Critical Conversations: Migration in An Age of Movement
  • Plus: Improving Decision Making
  • Upcoming Events: Aspen NZ Security Dialogue: Wellington

 

Next month we bring our Security Dialogue to Wellington - a private roundtable for senior leaders to discuss choices and trade-offs ahead, and the shared responsibility to safeguard New Zealand's long-term prosperity.


There is no shortage of things to think carefully about. This edition is a start.

 

Ngā mihi - Christine and the Aspen Institute NZ team  

    Global Affairs

    Geopolitics is back. Economics is paying attention.

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    The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has accelerated shifts that were already underway - geopolitical competition and economic interdependence have collided, and the effects are being felt well beyond the region.
    Across the Aspen network, these shifts are being examined from multiple angles. Aspen Germany's recent Deep Dive on economic security explored the dual challenge of resilience and statecraft, while Aspen France looked at how the conflict is reshaping economic positioning in Europe. Economist Nicolas Bouzou frames the broader shift well: since the fall of the Berlin Wall, economics shaped geopolitics, but today that relationship has inverted. The Strait of Hormuz is a vivid illustration of how a single chokepoint can ripple through energy markets, inflation and investment worldwide.
    For New Zealand, the implications are immediate. Trade, supply chains and geopolitical positioning are now tightly linked. Aspen NZ’s new Security Programme is built to support better decisions in this environment.

    Critical Conversations 

    Migration in an age of movement

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    Migration is one of the defining forces of our time -  structural, accelerating, and with effects that reach every corner of the world, including our own. Treating it as a series of short-term crises has produced reactive responses that cost more, achieve less, and deepen polarisation.
    The Aspen Institute International Partners' newly released report, Migration in an Age of Movement, makes the case for a different approach. Born out of discussion at the 2025 Global Changemakers Workshop in Bogotá, and including Aspen NZ scholarship recipient Archie Ritchie, the report sets out a framework for long-term governance that treats migration as a structural feature of global society, from building transparent legal pathways to framing integration as a two-way process.
    A free online event discussing the report's findings is being held next week - more details below.

    Improving the way we make decisions

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    If there’s a common challenge across leadership, it’s not a shortage of decisions, but a lack of time and discipline to properly examine how those decisions are made.

    At our recent Debugging Decision Making roundtable in Queenstown, leaders from across sectors stepped back from the immediacy of decision making to focus on the thinking behind it. The conversation was candid and, at times, challenging, exploring how evidence, values and uncertainty are weighed in complex environments, and what it takes to build processes that can withstand pressure.

    What emerged was simple but demanding discipline - one that extends well beyond the boardroom. Read more here.

     

    Coming Up - Local

    Critical Conversations

    Aspen NZ Security Dialogue

    Wellington  |  21 April 

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    Economic and National Security:

    A Whole of Society Approach

     

    Following our recent Auckland Security Dialogue, Aspen NZ brings the conversation to Wellington. This invitation-only roundtable examines New Zealand's economic and national security through a whole-of-society lens, with particular focus on the relationship between business prosperity and national security. Featuring former NZ Ambassador to the US Rosemary Banks and NZSIS Director-General Andrew Hampton.

    Find out more

    Coming Up - Global

    Rethinking Migration

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    Register

     

     

    Join the Aspen Institute International Partners for this free virtual event, which continues the conversation from the 2025 Global Changemakers Workshop in Bogotá. Bringing together members of the cohort behind the newly release report Migration in an Age of Movement, to discuss their recommendations for the future of migration governance. Moderated by Faith Cooper.

    A recording will be made available to participants  who register, but are unable to attend live.

     

    The Aspen Executive Seminar on Leadership, Values, and the Good Society

    Aspen, CO

    18 - 24 April

    Deep Dive: Crisis in the Middle East. Iran, Israel, and the Risk of Regional Collapse

    Aspen Germany

    21 April

     

    Our work depends on thoughtful leadership across sectors.

    If you are interested in contributing to or participating in this year’s programme, please get in touch. 

     

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    The Aspen Institute New Zealand, 7 Coronation Drive, Queenstown, Otago 9348, New Zealand

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