Welcome to the September edition of 'The Lookout', leading with China’s growing influence, America’s uncertain role, and the upcoming Aspen-Otago National Security Forum.
Welcome toTheLookout. This month we examine China’s growing influence in South-East Asia, reflect on the future of the global order, and pay homage to the leadership of one of our founding Trustees and Chair.
In Global Affairs, Stephen Dziedzic reports on how shifting trade and diplomatic ties are reshaping power dynamics across South-East Asia, with implications for regional cohesion. Critical Conversations explores a shifting and unstable global landscape, considering the implications for national security and the future of the world order. And in Connected Communities, we recognise our Co-Patron, Sir Donald McKinnon as he steps down as Trustee and Director, acknowledging his pivotal contribution in shaping Aspen NZ.
Next week, we’re set to host the Aspen-Otago National Security Forum, an extremely timely gathering of leaders from Australia and New Zealand to confront the national security challenges defining our region.
We hope you enjoy this edition.
Ngā mihi - Christine and the Aspen Institute NZ team
Global Affairs
China’s Growing Influence in South-East Asia
China now holds a narrow but growing lead over the US as South-East Asia’s most influential power, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2025 Influence Index. Its strength lies in trade, investment, and diplomacy, while US standing is eroding under tariffs and aid cuts. Stephen Dziedzic, ABC correspondent and speaker at the Aspen-Otago National Security Forum, reports on the shift here - and will explore how similar dynamics are reshaping the Pacific, from the Solomons to regional cohesion.
Critical Conversations
Assessing the New World Order
Uncertainty and instability are reshaping the global geopolitical landscape, raising questions about how, and whether, the U.S. will lead. In this Aspen Ideas Festival session, Fareed Zakaria, Susan Rice, David Petraeus, and John Bolton weigh the implications for national security, the future of multilateral institutions, and the risk of escalating conflict. Their debate offers contrasting views on America’s role in a contested world, and what this could mean for the international order.
Connected Communities
Honouring Sir Donald McKinnon: Founding Chair and Trustee
We celebrate The Rt. Hon. Sir Donald McKinnon ONZ GCVO and his remarkable leadership as Aspen NZ’s founding Chair and Trustee. As he steps down from his role as a Trustee and Director, while continuing to support the Institute as Co-Patron, we are grateful for his signature warmth, wisdom, and steady diplomacy in shaping Aspen NZ into a trusted, non-partisan forum where leaders explore big ideas and tackle critical challenges. His legacy of leadership and generosity will continue to influence conversations across New Zealand and the wider region.
As we honour Sir Don’s contributions, we are delighted to welcome Hon. Simon Bridges as our new Trustee. Simon brings extensive experience in leadership and public service, and we look forward to the energy and perspective he will bring to Aspen NZ’s mission.
In partnership with the University of Otago, this forum brings together senior leaders, intelligence experts, and policymakers to address the region’s most urgent security challenges - from espionage and AI, to foreign interference in elections, cybersecurity, and regional instability.
Join the public forum or enquire about attending the private forum to engage directly with those shaping national security.
The Socrates Seminar returns in December with a critical conversation on media, trust, misinformation, and democracy - moderated by Aspen Digital’s Vivian Schiller, a former senior executive at NPR, The New York Times, and Twitter.
Held at Taramea, a purpose-built private meeting space in a rural setting, the seminar runs over 3 half days and offers a rare chance to step away from daily demands and engage with leaders from across sectors, to challenge assumptions, explore solutions, and help shape the future of trust.
Master decision-making with EVBDM - a practical, immersive course that equips participants with tools to navigate complexity, reduce risk, and align decisions with both data and values. Led by Aspen NZ Director Neil Jacobstein. Contact us to improve your decision outcomes today.
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